November 3, 2004

He’s given up. Called the White House and said “the country is divided enough”. Look, these aren’t nice people who care about that. They are revolutionaries. They want your country divided, so they can define the other half as the enemy. That’s what they do. The Nation vs the Other. The Leader and the Mass.…

Keep your heads. I can’t stand some of the nonsense about suicide waves, emigration and blaming gays that is circulating around some otherwise good blogs. MyDD gives the details. In Ohio, there’s a Bush lead of 138,866, but anywhere between 100,000 and 250,000 provisional, absentee and overseas ballots. In Iowa and New Mexico, there are…

It’s down to Ohio, Iowa and New Mexico. White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card has just made a speech in which he stated as fact that Bush was winning Ohio by 140,000 votes and this was “statistically insurmountable”. His source was Republican Ohio Secretary Kenneth Blackwell. Meanwhile, Blackwell’s office informed UK journalists in Ohio…

Reuters supposedly calling Pennsylvania for Kerry. BBC figures put Kerry just shy of 57%, why this wasn’t called earlier is bewildering. Anyway I’ve had enough. Want to sleep. I’m not even going to drink the rest of the Black Sheep Ale.

The BBC figures in Ohio and Pennsylvania are converging on the exit polls. Positions reversed in Ohio – Kerry now 54.3%. Pennsylvania now 68% – 31%. Perhaps that early exit poll was the truth? Kerry also pulling in front by a nose in Missouri. Now up to 71% in Pennsylvania.

Now reporting that Bush might get one of the 4 Maine EVs. Most calls at the moment seem to be purely exit poll or hunch based. More exies, here. Just opened a Black Sheep Ale, and seen another chunk of calls. Nebraska, North and South Dakota, Texas, Kansas go Bush. Well, shock me. New York…

……for Kerry, 52%-48%. Figures based on an exit poll, here. Mind you, the BBC’s data doesn’t bear that out. New Hampshire looks like it’s going Kerry if you accept results from 5% of the state. Mind you, that’s what some of the other calls have been based on. The Washington Monthly is now agreeing. It…

Betting markets are responding to the zeitgeist. I don’t see these as a worthwhile political indicator (scroll down), but they are good at waving with the wind. Apparently Ladbrokes have swung Kerry from odds against to 4/11, Bush from 6/4 to 2/1. Kerry 56% on some internet markets. Good news – if you believe people…

First calls coming in. Safe Bush states going Bush (Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee. What a surprise). A string of safe Kerrys also dropping in on cue. Mind you, ElectoralVote.com’s poll that threw New Jersey to Bush has been shown up as a wild outlier. Some states called with 0% of results in – how’s that work?…

Zogby International pollsters call it Kerry 311, Bush 213. With a total of 14 Electoral College votes too close to call. Read it here, or save bandwidth and trust me. Meanwhile, Talking Points Memo is back on the chain gang after a “mystery server breakdown”. No mystery, I think, just a lot of blog, but…