April 5, 2015

Several different polls, by multiple pollsters using different methods, have now shown Ed Miliband’s personal ratings improving sharply after the various not-quite-a-debates. You doubt? Here’s Hopi Sen, presumably tweeting through gritted teeth: Since last poll @Ed_Miliband Lab voters rating went from 60.7 to 63.6, Among Con -50.4 to -42.8; LD -8.9 to +31 (!sample) UKIP…

Read More Being prime minister looks prime ministerial and nearly being prime minister…

So, I was out on the #labourdoorstep. And I had an interesting insight. We live in Doorbell Britain, which is divided into two tribes, the Friedlands and the Knockers. The Friedlands have evidently spent a lot of money on the technology of being alerted to visitors at their front door. Sometimes the bell is slickly…

Read More I invent a tiresome electoral marketing concept

So this chart happened. It looks like the Fistful of Euros model of the labour market has a serious problem, in that I can’t replicate JW Mason’s original results. The compositionally weighted ECI measure of earnings is more strongly correlated with the output gap, i.e. more cyclical, than the constant-weighted ECEC, at least for 2002-2014.…

Read More Science, dammit.