Ludlum, right? Author of crappy thrillers, who invented the standard operating procedure of titling your book The (enter random name) (enter intriguingly sinister plot item). I present something similar. What might finally push the Blair over the edge? I theorise that it’s The Edinburgh Gambit. According to Tom Green Ribbon Griffin, the Liberals in Scotland…
Read More Robert Ludlum, eat your heart outApparently if Iran gets a nuclear weapon, A nuclear Iran is likely to give or lend nuclear weapons to terrorists, resulting in an undeterrable nuclear strike against an American city or cities. And the answer to this dread scenario? Why, a credible threat of force. Eh? Employing a credible threat of force is only useful…
Read More More DeterrenceNow it’s all over, what was all the shooting about? To answer that question, we’d first need to know something of each side’s aims. Hezbollah’s were reasonably clear, at least as far as the decision to take the two soldiers prisoner went: put pressure on the Israelis to release their remaining Lebanese prisoners, and not…
Read More A war for neuroticsJamie K thinks the UNTSO post was bombed to prevent them observing a possible Israeli flank movement from the northern tip of the country, around Kiryat Shmona, down the Litani valley to the sea, with hopes of cutting off the retreat, which means going further into Lebanon. He quotes me, in comments, suggesting that this…
Read More Right flankReally detailed reporting from the Jerusalem Post on the first phase of the invasion. Note especially this: On Thursday five Egoz soldiers were killed by an anti-tank missile in the village…”many of our tanks took hits, mainly from Sagger rockets; none of the tanks were destroyed but quite a few of our friends were wounded.”…
Read More Right on cueThe last post went a bit off-topic as the rockets got in the way of the strategy. So, a recap. Hezbollah is following, I think, a sort of fleet-in-being strategy. They want to keep their militia and their quasi-state role inside Lebanon, and anything that weakens the Lebanese government is conducive to that. Even being…
Read More Maintenance of the aimDoes Operation HERRICK, the British-led expansion of ISAF to southwestern Afghanistan stand a chance of success? What is “success” anyway? Just as importantly, does it stand a chance of disaster? Well, the deployment is now well under way, as the 16AAB less two infantry battalions and plus assorted DFID and NGO civilian personnel establishes itself…
Read More AfghanitasticApparently, Douglas Feith wanted to bomb targets in South America, or perhaps South-East Asia immediately after the 11th September 2001 raids “because it would surprise the terrorists”. Following the link you can find much snark as to alternative options that would achieve the aim of surprising the terrorists. It seems intuitively bizarre that anyone would…
Read More Surprise, Feith, and the levels of analysisSome ideas never die, no matter how many times they get beaten. Look at the theory of land-value taxation, or social credit, or anything religious. The art of war, like every other field of intellectual activity, has its own. This is airpower theory, the notion developed by the Italian general (not, perhaps, a good sign)…
Read More Beware: Airpower theorists