Really important data point in the light of this post:
Yougov: 49% of UKIPPERs are 2010 Tories (15% LAB, 14% LD, 7% UKIP, 15% non voters/minor party) of whom a mere 16% are under 40. Interesting.
— James Smith (@thejimsmith) May 27, 2014
2010 Tory voters, 84% (84%!) over 40? That’s Group Three for you, the grumpy protectionists. And they make up 49 per cent of the party’s electorate. As a rough guess, I’d identify the 7% of the total who voted UKIP in 2010 as the total of Groups One and Two. 49:7, some ratio. Here’s your answer as to why UKIP voters don’t put the EU at the top of their priorities, and do support the NHS and the BBC, etc: they’re normal. Normal. They’re your dad. They’re arguably more representative of the nation than some clown who wants charter hospitals and Tesco elections with a view to a future career with an American thinktank. They are damning evidence of the creepy weirdness of the Coalition. That will be why trying to order people not to vote for supposed “fascists” isn’t working.
This also has the consequence that if the ‘kippers want to be an enduring political force, building up Lib-Dem style local authority bases supporting MPs, their platform will just have to evolve and get normal, as will the personalities. Successful local government is dependent, above all, on being as normal as fuck, getting your head down, and grafting hard. This is going to be difficult, because the EU-obsessives, Powellite screamers, and glibertarians have nowhere else to go that gives them any hope of real influence at all. Therefore they will fight for survival. Similarly, the 49 per centers and ex-Tory careerists can’t have their own independent party or their own careers in it if they don’t get their way, so they will fight. Popcorn!